NFL Thoughts, Week 12

By my unofficial estimate, the consensus picks for the NFC and AFC Most Disappointing Teams of the Year have been the Rams and Bengals, respectively. In fact, as a thought experiment, before reading further, ask yourself whether or not you agree with these choices, and why or why not.

Done? Okay. Now here’s why I think St. Louis and Cincinnati have been disappointing in critics’ eyes. On the eve of the season, most NFL prognosticators believed both teams would make the playoffs and—in the Rams case—compete for the division title. The rationale behind these healthy outlooks was that both teams had good-to-great quarterbacks (Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger), wide receivers (Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chris Henry; Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Drew Bennett), and running backs (Rudi Johnson, Steven Jackson). While the defenses for both teams weren’t great, weaknesses had been addressed through the draft (the Rams selected DE Adam Carriker 13th overall, the Bengals took CB Leon Hall 18th overall).

The fact that both franchises are now floundering—with no realistic shot at anything—spotlights the lackadaisically narrow view many analysts take when appraising a team. Last season, the Bengals ranked 17th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed, while the Rams ranked 28th and 23rd. Other than the Bengals’ acquisition of Lemar Marshall, neither team acquired a significant defensive free agent in the off-season, and Cincinnati placed Marshall on injured reserve in the first week of October, where he joined teammate and fellow starting LBs Dave Pollack and Caleb Miller. And though both teams focused on drafting defensive talent, considering the historical lack of impact that even high draft picks have their rookie year, both teams had essentially done nothing to improve themselves on defense in the near term.

So why did NFL analysts expect so much out of these teams? Quite simply, most people—including high-paid experts—ignore the importance of defense, even though—as the cliché goes—it “wins championships.” And do you know why I think they do this? Two words: fantasy football. According to some estimates, as many as 20 million people now play fantasy football—often in several leagues at once. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the rules, fantasy football rosters generally consist of quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, kickers, and “defenses/special teams.” The first five groups are drafted by fantasy “owners” on an individual basis, while “defenses/special teams” are selected collectively. Thus, for example, a fantasy football roster might feature Tom Brady at quarterback (plus backup), Steve Smith and Andre Johnson at wide receiver (plus backups), Heath Miller at tight end (plus backup), Brandon Jacobs at running back (plus backup), Neil Rackers kicking, and the Baltimore Ravens defense/special teams. Further, the scoring structure within fantasy football is such that the defense/special teams “position” matters the least, because by nature the majority of scoring in football comes from the offense. While defenses do provide quantifiable results (e.g., sacks, interceptions, and even the occasional defensive touchdown), the founders and participants of fantasy football had too much trouble coming up with a method of properly integrating individual defensive statistics into their point-scoring systems. Or they didn’t feel like it.

That’s a shame, because as crazy as it may sound, I really think a side effect of this derivative, pretend game (fantasy football) has been to marginalize the contributions of half the participants—i.e., defenses—of the real thing. I really can’t think of any other reason why—when analyzing a weekly match-up, for instance—commentators will go in-depth on each team’s QB, WR, RB, and TE (and often even touching on their backups) before—almost as an afterthought—merely rating the entire defensive unit as either “good” or “bad.”

Similarly, an over-exaggeration of the draft’s importance distorts our assessment of teams. Out of the entire first round of picks, I count only about five rookies who have made truly significant contributions: Joe Thomas (3rd), Adrian Peterson (7th), Patrick Willis (11th), Jon Beason (25th), and Greg Olsen (31st). Others have been steady if unspectacular, and about a third of them have barely even played. According to Len Pasquerelli at ESPN.com, only 13 first round selections are even starting for their teams this year, and out of the 260+ total selections made every year, only 30 or so on average start. Yet a rundown of each team’s draft picks is typically at the very top of every season preview.

We all love offense, and we’re all excited about rookies. High-scoring games are generally more fun to watch. I’m told fantasy football is really fun to play. Meanwhile, rookies are new, interesting, and prone to saying stupid, thoughtless, highly-quotable things. But sometimes I worry that both fantasy football and the draft are dumbing down our overall analytical skills. Football isn’t all that hard to absorb in its totality in the first place. Let’s face it, watching football and following it obsessively is time that could be spent pursuing more intellectually challenging endeavors. We basically do it because it’s a visceral experience that’s easier than, say, reading a book or listening to an orchestra. So by focusing mostly on five positions and draft picks, what are we saying about our attention spans? They’re not even robust enough to account for half a football team?

This all reminds me of some ads I’ve seen for a product called “Executive Summaries,” which boils down popular business books into 1-page synopses. These uber-Cliffs Notes are targeted for “busy” executives who apparently don’t have time to take in the entire book and would really just like the bottom-line main points. What’s sort of disturbing is the fact that these are books like Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point, which doesn’t exactly reach James Joyce-levels of complexity to begin with. Is all this hyper-truncation where society’s ultimately headed? I wonder what might be next; perhaps songs that only feature a repeated chorus, or movies that cut straight to the shoot-outs and sex scenes. If that’s the case, the pharmaceutical companies better get started on their Soma production…

Offensive Player of the Week: Brett Favre, Packers. 381 yards, 3 touchdowns, no picks, and a stretch of 20 consecutive completions. To me, Favre’s like Bono. For a long time, I basically thought of them both as cagey charlatans—Bono with his supposed worldliness, and Favre with his fake tears. But now I’m convinced that both are the real deal and should be celebrated.

Defensive Player of the Week: Patrick Kerney, Seahawks. Forget about drafting Seattle’s defense for your fantasy team, just draft Kerney, who amassed 3 sacks, an interception, and a forced fumbles. Although I don’t know how many fantasy points that’s worth, it helped his real team win the game.

RIP Sean Taylor. Between the spitting, the jet-ski related assault charges, and the explosive plays in the secondary, there was simply never a dull moment for this amazing talent and volatile personality. He lived fast and died much too young…